How the MaGA Movement Mirrors the Rise of Soft Autocracy Around the World: Red Hats, Blackshirts: When Populism Turned Dark.
People get turned off when the talk is of Donald Trump. Especially his supporters, obviously. But in a way, this isn't even about him, but the processes involved, the dynamics at play, those who purposely or inadvertently aid the process of democracy's demise and the rise of something else entirely.
Is there a sociological and psychological framework that helps explain why people may continue to support policies or leaders that are objectively at odds with their own interests or initial expectations?
It's not a single "formula," but rather a set of overlapping concepts from sociology, psychology, and political science that explain the phenomenon you're describing — like how some MaGA supporters continue to believe in "small government" ideals while endorsing massive state overreach or authoritarianism.
Here are a few of the most relevant concepts:
1. Cognitive Dissonance (Leon Festinger)
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Definition: When a person holds conflicting beliefs, or when their actions contradict their beliefs, it causes mental discomfort. To resolve this, they often change their interpretation of reality to align with their actions or loyalties.
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Example: A Trump supporter believes in small government but sees Trump expanding executive power. Instead of rejecting him, they reinterpret the expansion as "necessary" or "not really government overreach."
2. Symbolic Politics & Identity Protection
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Definition: People don't just vote based on policy — they vote based on identity and symbolism. Political affiliations become a core part of identity, so rejecting a leader like Trump feels like rejecting themselves and their community.
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Example: Even if tariffs hurt farmers, they still support Trump because he symbolizes their values and "fights the elites."
3. False Consciousness (Marxist Theory)
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Definition: A situation where the working class adopts the ideology of the ruling class, even when it’s against their own interests.
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Example: Believing that tax cuts for the rich or corporate deregulation will eventually benefit them, even though the opposite often happens.
4. Political Cultism / Charismatic Authority (Max Weber)
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Definition: Charismatic leaders can exert power beyond rational or legal authority by embodying a kind of mythic figure. Followers believe not based on logic, but because of the leader's perceived greatness or destiny.
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Example: Trump is seen by some not as a politician but as a savior figure, exempt from critique.
5. Motivated Reasoning
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Definition: People process information in a biased way that confirms their pre-existing beliefs, and actively reject information that contradicts those beliefs.
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Example: When tariffs hurt the economy, supporters may believe it’s “temporary pain” for “long-term gain,” even if no such gain appears.
6. The "Backfire Effect"
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Definition: When confronted with facts that contradict their beliefs, some people double down instead of reconsidering.
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Example: Showing data that Trump’s tariffs raise consumer prices may actually increase a supporter’s defense of him, believing the data must be biased or "fake news."
7. Bounded Rationality & Information Silos
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Definition: People make decisions based on the limited information available to them — and today's media ecosystems often isolate people in echo chambers.
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Example: If someone only watches Newsmax or follows far-right social media, they may never see credible critiques of Trump’s economic policies.
You’re essentially describing a kind of ideological mirage, where people see what they expect or want to see — small government, freedom, prosperity — even while the actual reality moves in the opposite direction: more authoritarianism, cronyism, and wealth transfer upward.
It’s part psychology, part social conditioning, and part systemic manipulation — but it’s well-documented.
Diving deeper into these concepts and historical examples, the MAGA movement under Donald Trump serves as a real-time case study of how these sociological and psychological mechanisms play out—both historically and in the present day through the modern Republican Party.
Let’s break it down using the concepts mentioned above, applied specifically to MAGA Republicans and Trump:
🔥 1. Cognitive Dissonance in Action
Trump promises "small government" — but expands executive power, threatens to use the military on protesters, and pushes for federal control over local decisions (like education, voting, and policing).
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Dissonance: Supporters believe in individual liberty and limited government.
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Resolution: They tell themselves Trump is only expanding power to "fight corruption" or "drain the swamp" — not to centralize control.
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Result: They don't see authoritarianism — they see "tough leadership."
🧠 2. Motivated Reasoning & the Backfire Effect
When Trump’s actions contradict conservative principles — like ballooning the national debt, embracing tariffs, or cozying up to dictators — MAGA Republicans don't abandon him. Instead:
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They dismiss inconvenient facts as "fake news."
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They reinterpret his actions as 4D chess or necessary "disruption."
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Attempts to correct the record often strengthen their support due to the backfire effect — especially when criticism comes from mainstream media or "liberals."
🧱 3. False Consciousness: Working Against Their Own Interests
Many MAGA voters are rural, working-class, or low-income Americans who:
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Rely on government programs Trump and the GOP want to cut (Social Security, Medicaid, food aid).
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Are harmed by tariffs, job losses, or corporate deregulation.
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Yet still believe they’re being empowered — because Trump frames these moves as fights against "welfare cheats" or "big government elites."
The result? They support policies that harm them, believing they’re protecting themselves from others "cheating the system."
🦸 4. Charismatic Authority & Political Cultism
Trump has positioned himself as not just a president, but a savior — a "chosen one," even making statements like:
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“I alone can fix it.”
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“They’re not after me, they’re after you — I’m just in the way.”
This fosters cult-like loyalty:
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His word is seen as more truthful than any expert, judge, scientist, or journalist.
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If Trump changes positions, supporters pivot with him (e.g., hating free trade after decades of GOP support for it).
🧑🤝🧑 5. Symbolic Politics & Tribal Identity
Supporting Trump isn’t just about policy — it’s about who you are and who you’re against:
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MAGA becomes a cultural identity.
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Wearing a MAGA hat, waving a flag, or attending a rally is about belonging.
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Opposition to Trump becomes framed as hatred of you — your faith, race, class, or region.
Even when Trump does things they’d condemn in others, it’s excused — because the enemy is worse.
📺 6. Information Silos & Echo Chambers
Fox News (pre-2023), Newsmax, OANN, and social media ecosystems create a closed-loop of misinformation:
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Supporters get filtered, emotionally-charged narratives.
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Dissenting facts are branded as liberal propaganda.
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Complex policy discussions are replaced with slogans and scapegoats.
This environment shields them from the reality of Trump’s policies and turns criticism into proof of a conspiracy against him.
👀 7. Projection & Inversion of Reality
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Trump accuses opponents of the very things he does — election fraud, authoritarianism, corruption.
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Supporters believe he’s the victim, despite him being the one with power.
The result is a complete inversion: attacking democracy is framed as saving it; hurting working people is seen as protecting them.
🎯 Summary:
Trumpism is a textbook case of how people can be led to cheer for things that are not just contrary to their values — but harmful to their lives.
Why? Because:
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They're emotionally invested in the identity and myth of Trump.
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They’re inside an ecosystem that constantly reinforces that myth.
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And they’re psychologically incentivized to reject any reality that threatens it.
Examples of this playing out around specific issues (healthcare, taxes, immigration, January 6, etc.) are abundant.
What other country or year most closely resembles something like this?
It's a great question — and it's one that historians, sociologists, and political scientists have been warning about for years now. The kind of mass delusion, cult-like loyalty, and systemic reversal of values we see in the MAGA movement under Trump most closely resembles the rise of authoritarian regimes in democratic societies, especially Germany in the 1930s under Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party — but with key differences.
It's not just diatribe by opposition types against Trump and his Party. It's objectively rational. While at this time Trump is not the end example of a Hitler, he does resemble him in his rise to power in many ways. But also some other authoritarian leaders.
Let’s go over the most significant historical parallels:
🇩🇪 Germany, 1930s — The Rise of Hitler
Hitler rose to power in a democratic system during a time of chaos, economic despair, and widespread disillusionment — much like Trump leveraged American anxiety over globalization, immigration, and cultural change.
Similarities to Trump/MAGA:
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"Make Germany Great Again": Hitler promised to restore German pride and punish those responsible for its decline — Jews, communists, intellectuals, and elites. Sound familiar?
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Scapegoating minorities: Just as Trump blames immigrants, Muslims, and others for America's problems, Hitler blamed Jews, Roma, and foreigners.
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Cult of personality: Hitler was seen as Germany’s only hope, and obedience to him was framed as patriotism.
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Undermining democracy from within: Both Hitler and Trump used democratic institutions to gain power, then tried to dismantle or weaken them once in control.
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Media control and "fake news": Nazis called the press the "Lügenpresse" (lying press), just as Trump brands journalists as the "enemy of the people."
“People believe a big lie more readily than a small one.” — Hitler in Mein Kampf
Trump’s Big Lie? The 2020 election was stolen.
🇮🇹 Italy, 1920s–30s — Mussolini and Fascism
Mussolini was a charismatic populist who promised to make Italy strong again after World War I.
Parallels:
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Nationalism and symbolic politics: Mussolini’s blackshirts and Trump’s red hats are both part of performative identity politics.
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Anti-intellectualism: Both movements cast academics, journalists, and experts as elitists working against “the people.”
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Paramilitary intimidation: Mussolini had squads of thugs. Trump had militias, Proud Boys, and “stand back and stand by.”
🇷🇺 Russia — Putin’s Playbook
Putin isn’t a fascist in the classic sense, but he’s mastered authoritarian populism with a veneer of democracy — something Trump openly admires.
Similarities:
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Control of media and narrative.
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Weaponization of nationalism and culture wars.
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Dismantling democratic checks via loyalist appointments and court packing.
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Presenting himself as a strongman who defends tradition and religion against a corrupt liberal West.
Trump has repeatedly praised Putin's “strength” — and even tried to emulate this leadership style.
🇹🇷 Turkey — Erdoğan’s “Soft Authoritarianism”
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan used democratic means to become president and gradually concentrated power, crushed dissent, co-opted the courts, and purged the military and press.
Shared traits:
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Weaponizing religion (Islam for Erdoğan, Christianity for Trump).
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Branding all criticism as a threat to national security.
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Ruling by grievance politics and “us vs them” narratives.
🇧🇷 Brazil — Bolsonaro
Often called the “Trump of the Tropics,” Jair Bolsonaro gained power through similar populist strategies:
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Denied COVID's seriousness, just as Trump did.
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Claimed election fraud preemptively.
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Glorified the military and authoritarian past.
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Used religion and anti-LGBTQ rhetoric to galvanize his base.
He also helped inspire January 6–style attacks in Brazil after his defeat.
✋ Key Differences to Keep in Mind:
While Trump has flirted with authoritarianism, he hasn’t (yet) had:
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Total control of the military
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Full state media monopoly
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The ability to jail critics en masse
But many democratic backslidings begin slowly — with attacks on truth, trust, and institutional checks. January 6 was a turning point that showed Trump would pursue extra-constitutional means to stay in power, and many of his followers cheered it.
🧠 Final Thought:
MAGA's loyalty to Trump — in spite of policy contradictions, lies, and authoritarian gestures — mirrors how other authoritarian figures manipulated democratic fatigue, economic fear, cultural backlash, and identity politics to consolidate power.
Again, it doesn’t mean Trump is Hitler or Mussolini, which confuses both sides of the ticket in opposing ways — but the methods and psychological mechanics are eerily similar.
So, if not Hitler or Mussolini then who most likely does Trump resemble in history?
It's an important follow-up — and an important one, especially if one is aiming for clarity over hyperbole.
While Hitler and Mussolini are often invoked for their extremism, Trump actually more closely resembles a different class of authoritarian or strongman leader: the “soft” autocrats, demagogues, or populist strongmen who manipulate democratic systems rather than overthrow them outright.
Here’s a list of the most historically accurate comparisons — people Trump most closely mirrors in terms of style, tactics, and trajectory:
🇭🇺 Viktor Orbán (Hungary)
Closest modern comparison.
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Came to power democratically.
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Used judicial appointments, media control, and changes to election laws to tilt the playing field.
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Demonized immigrants, LGBTQ people, and "globalists" (often coded antisemitism).
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Built a network of state-aligned oligarchs to fund his regime.
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Calls himself the defender of “Christian civilization.”
Trump admires Orbán and endorsed him. The Heritage Foundation (behind Project 2025) praises Orbán's model openly.
✅ Both: Claim to protect “the people” while enriching elites and dismantling democratic norms from within.
🇷🇺 Boris Yeltsin → Vladimir Putin (Russia)
Trump’s trajectory — erratic strongman transitioning into authoritarianism — has some echoes in Yeltsin’s chaotic populism, which opened the door for Putin’s authoritarian consolidation.
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Trump isn’t Putin — but he might be America’s Yeltsin: the unstable figure who undermines institutions and paves the way for worse.
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If re-elected, Trump has already signaled he’ll do things Putin-style (e.g., purging civil servants, jailing enemies).
🇦🇷 Juan Perón (Argentina, 1940s–50s)
A charismatic populist with strongman appeal and loyal base, who used mass media and culture to maintain control.
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Promised to stand up for the "common man" while consolidating power.
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Used emotion and personality more than policy.
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Played both left and right sides politically depending on what suited him.
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His wife, Eva Perón, became a celebrity-activist figure — think Melania, Ivanka, or even Trump himself as the brand.
🇵🇭 Ferdinand Marcos Sr. (Philippines)
A democratically elected president who:
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Used nationalism and fear of communism to justify crushing dissent.
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Declared martial law to remain in power.
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Enriched himself and his allies through massive corruption.
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Created a personality cult around his family.
Trump hasn’t declared martial law — but Jan 6 was an attempt to override democratic transfer of power, not unlike what Marcos did in 1972 to cancel elections.
🇺🇸 George Wallace (Alabama Governor, 1960s)
An American precedent:
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Openly segregationist, populist, anti-elite.
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Ran on fear of civil rights, crime, and federal overreach.
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Famous for saying, “Segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever!”
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Positioned himself as the voice of the "forgotten white man."
Like Wallace, Trump tapped into white grievance politics, though with a slicker, reality-TV veneer. Also like Wallace, he framed all opposition as anti-American.
🧠 Summary: Who is Trump Most Like?
| Historical Figure | Why the Comparison Fits |
|---|---|
| Viktor Orbán | Modern autocrat using democratic tools to seize power. |
| Juan Perón | Populist celebrity politician with a loyal cult base. |
| Ferdinand Marcos | Corrupt strongman enriching himself while undermining democracy. |
| George Wallace | U.S.-based demagogue stoking racial and cultural fear. |
| Yeltsin (→ Putin) | The destabilizer whose chaos opens the door to worse. |
Trump’s second-term Project 2025 goals line up directly with what Orbán or Marcos did in their countries — it’s rather striking.
And THAT evokes a recent interesting movie. "2073" on MAX. Democracy isn’t dying with a bang but fading in silence between headlines. "2073" shows how the system is quietly rigged & how many might not see until it’s too late. Watch on Max, before we lose it all. Probably, too late already.
Finally, check this out: What to do if the Insurrection Act is invoked. With the Insurrection Act looming, now is the time to learn how it might unfold and the strategic ways to respond — including the power of ridicule.
Wishing us all the very best, which we deserve rather than much of what has been fomented upon us by some very disingenuous, shady, and dangerous characters.
Remember when Benjamin Franklin was asked what kind of government the Constitutional Convention had created? His cautionary reply was:
“A republic, if you can keep it.”
It was a simple yet profound warning—one that has since been twisted and misused by those who blindly follow authoritarianism, all while claiming to defend democracy or the republic itself.
