Donald Trump's belief in tariffs reflects a deeply mercantilist worldview—one where trade is a zero-sum game: if another country is “winning,” the U.S. must be “losing.” This runs counter to modern economic consensus, which sees mutual benefit in trade, even with imbalances.
Here’s how that belief becomes delusional in practical terms:
🔁 1. Misunderstanding Trade Deficits
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Trump frames trade deficits as losses, like a business losing money.
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In reality, trade deficits aren’t inherently bad. They can reflect a strong consumer economy, capital inflows, or currency strength.
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For Trump, the deficit is an emotional symbol of America being cheated—ignoring that many of the goods are cheap consumer items Americans want.
🧠 The delusion: Thinking a trade deficit is the same as a failing economy or "losing" a deal.
💸 2. “China pays the tariffs” fallacy
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Trump often said “China is paying billions” to the U.S. Treasury via tariffs.
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In truth, U.S. importers pay the tariffs, and pass the costs to consumers or cut profits.
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Multiple studies, including from the New York Fed and Brookings, confirmed this.
🧠 The delusion: Believing tariffs punish foreign countries directly without blowback to Americans.
🔨 3. Tariffs will rebuild American manufacturing
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Trump assumed that tariffs would revive industrial jobs, especially in steel, coal, and auto sectors.
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What happened: a short-term bump in some industries, followed by job losses in downstream industries hurt by higher input costs.
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Manufacturing did not boom—and some plants closed because of retaliatory tariffs or supply disruptions.
🧠 The delusion: Assuming complex supply chains can be reversed with blunt-force economic nationalism.
🪞 4. Tariffs as a tool for “winning”
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Trump believed tariffs are like poker chips—you slap them down and the other country caves.
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But countries like China and the EU retaliated, dug in, or shifted trade elsewhere.
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Instead of leverage, it triggered prolonged trade wars and created instability.
🧠 The delusion: Believing tariffs are a dominant power move rather than a risky gamble in global diplomacy.
🧱 Summary: The Core of the Delusion
Trump’s love for tariffs is built on:
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A misread of trade mechanics
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A nationalist, deal-maker lens unsuited to global economics
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A desire to assert control over complex, adaptive markets
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And a willingness to prioritize symbolism over results
It’s not that he doesn’t believe it—it’s that his belief is built on misunderstandings of how economies actually work.
Compiled with aid of ChatGPT
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