How a Pandemic Might Become Possible From This Chart

 How a Pandemic Might Become Possible From This Chart:

Let's imagine a scenario, purely hypothetical, based on the information in the chart, that could illuminate how a pandemic might become possible:

The Scenario: The Bat Corona Project

In 2015, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) awards a grant to EcoHealth Alliance, a US-based organization, for research on bat coronaviruses. The project, dubbed "Bat Corona," aims to understand the diversity of these viruses in their natural reservoir (bats) and assess their potential to jump to other species, including humans. EcoHealth, lacking the necessary facilities and expertise in bat sampling in remote Chinese caves, subawards a portion of the grant to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). The WIV, located in a region with a high diversity of bat species, has a lab equipped for handling potentially dangerous viruses.

Over the next few years, researchers from EcoHealth and the WIV collaborate. They collect hundreds of bat samples from caves across China, including near Wuhan. These samples are brought back to the WIV lab for analysis. Researchers identify several novel coronaviruses, some with concerning genetic features that suggest a potential for human infection.

One particular virus, closely related to SARS-CoV-1 (the original SARS virus), is of great interest. The researchers begin to conduct "gain-of-function" studies, meaning they intentionally modify the virus in the lab to see if they can make it more infectious to human cells. They want to understand the specific mutations required for bat coronaviruses to make the species jump to humans.

In late 2019, an accident occurs at the WIV lab. A researcher, perhaps fatigued or distracted, accidentally punctures their glove while working with the modified bat coronavirus. Despite following safety protocols, they become infected. Unknowingly, they carry the virus out of the lab and into the city of Wuhan.

The virus, now adapted to infect human cells more efficiently, spreads rapidly. Its initial symptoms are mild, resembling a common cold, allowing it to circulate undetected for weeks. By the time authorities realize a novel virus is spreading, it's already too late to contain it. Global travel amplifies the spread, and within months, the world is facing a pandemic.

How this scenario provides insight:

International Collaboration: It highlights how international scientific collaborations, while essential for research, can create potential risks if not managed with utmost care.

Gain-of-Function Research: It touches upon the controversial area of gain-of-function research, where viruses are intentionally modified, raising concerns about the potential for accidental release.

Lab Accidents: It demonstrates how lab accidents, even with strict protocols, can happen. Human error is always a possibility.

Lack of Transparency: If such research is conducted without sufficient transparency and oversight, it can be difficult to trace the origin of an outbreak and understand how it occurred.

Dual-Use Dilemma: It hints at the dual-use dilemma, where research intended for beneficial purposes (understanding viruses) could inadvertently lead to harmful consequences.

Important Disclaimer: This is a fictional scenario for illustrative purposes only. It is NOT intended to suggest that this is how the COVID-19 pandemic actually happened. The origins of COVID-19 are still under investigation, and it's crucial to rely on scientific evidence and avoid speculation. This scenario simply provides a potential framework for understanding the complex factors that can contribute to the emergence of a pandemic.

Compiled with the aid of Gemini AI formerly known as Bard, from Google

Second Quick Updated Revision to My Book: Suffering "Long Covid"

I recently wrote a blog about putting out an updated and revised version of my 2022 book:

Suffering "Long Covid". (available as Amazon ebook/Smashwords ebook). It has also been nominated for the 2024 Eric Hoffer Book Award.

The blog was titled:

 JZ Murdock - an update on my writings and works.

Well?

I did it again. Updated it. Weird, as I thought I was done and a few new copies had made it into a brick and mortar in another city. Then it happened. NPR reported a new study I felt just really needed to be included. I had updated the book for January 2024, with the biggest new issues studied or uncovered about Long Covid, in 2023. I wasn't going to update for or in 2024 until the beginning of 2025. 

So, I updated it, again. And it is now out and available and the new(est) books have been sent to that store. It's doing well enough they gave my book a SKU# and are paying me upon delivery rather than after sales have been made. Progress. 

So. How can you tell which book you have in your hands? 

On the acknowledgements/copyright page behind the title page (or last page of the book in the ebook version) it has a line that indicates the copyright year. 

If it says 2022, it's the first version. If it says "Revised Edition, January 2024" that's the second version. If it says, "Revised Edition 1.1" (see below), that's the third and now most current version. And I do not plan to do it again.

We found some spelling errors in it and I fixed all that. That's what actually made me want to revise it ASAP. Not that many but any are too many. 

I was still coming out of the other end of long covid from where I am now and my attention to minor details, like spelling every word correctly in a book of 56,000+ words, well...I wasn't perfect. And I've checked, nothing truly important was incorrect. The information was all and still is all accurate. 

I have gotten very good feedback about this book. 

People who bought it, when they returned to the store they told the manager that they learned a lot and found it very helpful. A review on Amazon from a verified purchaser seems to sum things up nicely. From December 7, 2022:

As we enter our 3rd year of the COVID-19 Pandemic there are a variety of side effects being experience by over25 million Americans from the over 100 million cases of COVID-19.

The author provides excellent detailed observations and research into the symptoms he suffered during his personal experience with LONG COVD. Through the fatigue and other symptoms you can gain insight into what you and your family may be experiencing.

It is a detailed quick read and he used his background as a researcher and writer to bring greater awareness and understanding to the LONG COVID condition.

As someone who worked in epidemiology for 18 years I found this book to be an excellent resource of information.

Not bad, right?

[Noon update: I just got a phone call about someone who bought my book in the store, read it and came back in for some other things, but mentioned he liked the book. Then he asked in the store if they/I knew about the FLCCC Alliance? I looked them up just now and started to remember coming across them in my research. I searched my book just now and I had not mentioned them in it, which can only be for cause. So I asked Bing AI about it, and the response was this: "The FLCCC Alliance is a group of physicians and former journalists who advocate for alternative treatments for COVID-19, such as ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine 1 2. However, these treatments have not been approved by the FDA or the WHO, and there is insufficient evidence to support their effectiveness or safety 1. Therefore, the FLCCC Alliance is not a reliable source of medical information, and their perspective is not based on solid scientific consensus." 

I just thought I should mention this. They may be onto something, maybe not, but it needs much more testing and verification. I'd considered including them in my book as well as some other questionable sources. But it leaves you caught between not mentioning viable possibilities without enough information, or leading people into something it's better they do not bother with, which perhaps they may come across on their own. It's a judgement call. Sometimes I mentioned such things, sometimes not. To gain perspective on that dilemma, I would suggest writing a book like this one and truly feeling the weight of your actions.]

Not bad, I say. That's it. That's all I've got for now...wishing you all...all the best!

Cheers! Sláinte!