Walkabout Thoughts #57

My thoughts, Stream of consciousness, rough and ready, while walking off long Covid and listening to podcasts… July 17, 2023, Monday

Weather for the day… 60 starting out, 72° when I got home

Podcast for the day is “Pod Save the World” episode, "Israel’s Judicial Coup, and Samantha Power on Ukraine"


I should mention that yesterday I watched a congressional hearing on UAP’s I thought was groundbreaking, and they said, in the hearing, it was historical. Coming from that, will hopefully be a process set up to acquire sightings from military, commercial pilots and people. It’s worth watching the nearly 3 hour hearing and make up your own mind. Some of the comments I’ve heard about it at first I called ridiculous but I recant that as I now see it more as simply “normal”. SOP. Standard consideration among people. Yes we have other things to worry about. But this is definitely something.

I should also mention that oddly enough Republicans in the hearing acted like congressional members and not partisan MAGA Republican fools. So they CAN do it they want; and ARE capable and should do more of that in Congress in every other area they’re involved in. Passing a resolution saying that Israel isn’t exactly what they are, and are doing, is just like MAGA Republicans, in being illiberal in a democracy. Just to be MAGA rather than American Congresspeople is ludicrous and frankly, offensive and offensively wasting our tax dollars while they rail about Democrats doing that. At least with the Dems we ARE getting SOMETHING, not just endless hearings and nonsense. Now they're trying to what, impeach Joe Biden so their Trump won't look so bad in all his court trials? So, the GOP party of obfuscations and besmirching for no reason other than obscuring how bad their primary candidate is. It really is disgusting.

I know the elderly sometimes have to go on blood thinners for issues of coagulation, blood clots, whatever. Covid and long Covid have similar issues which along with cell morphing can enhance or initiate that. I have found that at 67, having caught Covid three years ago and then again a year ago, both times getting long Covid, that I did not have heart or blood clotting issues before that. But I have since. I assume the heart issues are vagus nerve related. That’s gotten better, but has yet to go away. Typically one or 2 80mg aspirin, alleviates the situation, usually only taking them for a day, sometimes two. It’s really annoying though. Along with long Covid triggering long dormant viruses which all humans seem to have, it’s like a disease created to either kill humans, or simply be really annoying.

I updated my blog post from last week about "Pvt. Ravel’s Bolero", my film I’ve gotten so far 18 international awards for. I quadrupled the number of people seeing that post after reposting it to various social media. 

Oh, I got my second award for my biopic true crime screenplay, "The Teenage Bodyguard"! 

Now I just need to sell it and get it produced. It almost was three time. A producer and i talked with three different directors but I didn't appreciate their orientation. It's not a kids film. It's an adult drama. People hear 17 year old, they immediately go to hormones & horny!

Speaking of which (I know, nice segue)… Elon Musk… Changing Twitter to “X”? There’s something wrong with that guy, obviously.

I heard on NPR this morning that this Saturday, Washington state citizens will be able to get online and view convictions related to marijuana going back 50 years and have them expunged and their money for court fees and such, will be returned. I took one hit off a weed pipe I think in 1985 at a state park in Pierce County just adjacent to Tacoma across the Narrows bridge past Gig Harbor at Kopachuck State Park with a female friend I worked with at Tower Video in Tacoma. I took one hit, put it in a grocery type paper bag, and a Ranger popped out of the trees, a few feet from me, having been watching me the whole time. And a really good day quickly ended. He wrote me up. took a little bottle of pills I had for allergies, because he said they were having drug problem with pills at the park and took one pill of each. They were proved out to be what I'd said they were later. But I had to go to court and come back again which wasn’t fun and I got the $350 charge down to $75. What a stupid law charging people for getting high. But then I guess they charge you for drinking alcohol at state parks… So there’s that.

[UPDATE 8/2/23: I could not find that I had a court record though it happened in a state park, so...WTF? maybe I shouldn't care, esp., as it screwed me for a new career in the late 80s, and I doubt it will affect me any now, I just like closure...]

The public defender I got for that case was a nice guy, smart, and saved me some problems and money, but his comment at the end was, "You don’t ever wanna work for the government do you?" Uh, I don't know, maybe? I asked him if I could get it expunged at some point and he said, no. I had already been in the Air Force with a secret security clearance for nuclear weapons. But as it turned out, within a couple years, I had moved to Seattle, gotten married, had a kid and my wife’s father, who was a defense contractor, was going to give me an executive position in Florida. So I told him the truth about the cannabis conviction and he said, Well that’s too bad. And that ended that, because I wouldn’t pass the security check. So once again what has happened far too often in my life, happened again. Missed a great opportunity. Maybe. Would I have wanted to be a defense contractor exec? No. But the money. I had a young family. So...

I just like to mention the stupid cannabis laws in the war on drugs, and my example above is just one small issue that cost me and my family, financially and for my entire life. And the taxes I would’ve been paying a lot more taxes, was the stupidest paradigm for protecting American citizens on the books. Prohibition was stupid, regardless, how well-intentioned it was intended by mostly delusional religious types. This "war" mentality is destructive because... you know, it’s a WAR mentality. The war against drugs in practice and function turned out to be a war against American citizens.

Well? Maybe now I can get that stupid charge expunged and my money back. Money which was everything to me back then. $75 now is a quick shopping trip. $75 back then was a lot, part of my monthly rent and food out of my mouth. Not to mention it’s nice they’ll pay us back our money, but considering cost-of-living, etc. I’m not getting back my money, I’m getting back a token. $211.39 is what $75 in 1985 calculates out to now.

Did I send you the article that Amazon is finally going to add AI to Alexa? I think I did they're going to present it at the September show. And I fear which would be ridiculous that they make a spy new Alexis when I don't know what it's got to even do with Alexa, which is just an interface.

I agree with two advisers to the White House that it’s time to stop sending money for the military to Israel, considering their somewhat more gentle authoritarian putsch considering BB, seems proving out to be a racist and a PPBJ, Perceived Pure Blood Jew type. Yeah, maybe that's strong words, but what he's doing seems pretty disturbing. Protesters have been on the streets in Israel for 28 weeks and crowd control is having little concern for their safety when they’re just saying things like "we want our democracy back" and "Biden save us."

Israel receives more aid from America then any other country. We have an annual basis (other than Ukraine right now) where we give them $4 billion a year. I would say knock that down to $4 million and see how they act.

If Congress, especially MAGA, want to support Israel’s democracy then they need to act now, as Netanyahu is turning it into an autocracy. Why the hell is that so popular anymore? It's a BAD IDEA! And if they don’t, they really are just trying to get Trump back into office, which at this point it should be obvious to everyone is a criminal offense, even if it’s not legally indictable. And actually in many cases, it is and hopefully in execution, will be.

The other day in Israel 200 people marched 40 miles to the capital to protest what’s going on and by time they got there, they were joined by 20,000. That says something. .02% of Israel marched in protest. But that’s not nothing.

So this 23-year-old military person who was in a South Korean jail for a fight at a bar and kicking a cop car, was held for a week on base under observation, and then taken to the airport under escort to be sent home. He went on a tour to the DMZ and cross over like a fucking idiot to North Korea. Wait. What? OK. The thing is, the excuse is, he was taken to the airport but his escorts didn’t have tickets to go to the plane. OK, but when you’re escorting someone out of country, you take them to the plane. You watch the plane takeoff. You watch the plane to be sure they don’t get off out the back door. What is going on here.? That should all have been foreseen that you walk him to the gate. You get permission, without having to buy a ticket. It’s an official state thing. This is incompetence on the part of the US military and I would assume maybe, their law-enforcement? Or whomever. Escort him to the plane to be sent home. Oh, when he headed into NK apparently there was a van, potentially waiting for him when he crossed the border as if it was pre-planned? Which makes it sound more like a defection. But who the hell defects to the hermit kingdom and what kind of mental health issues do you have to have to do that?? Is he MAGA? Because that really would explain it, running away to Trump's political lover, and fetishist talisman leader of North Korea. Although if that is the case, then mental health is kind of still at issue.
If this kid who, lets call it escaped to North Korea, starts showing up in pro-North Korean propaganda films, especially with an anti-American orientation, and he seems happy, he’s probably a defector. Just  understand it’s complicated in North Korea. If he seems unhappy in those films, he still may have been a defector. Because I am assuming even if he’s happy in those films, he won’t be at some point soon thereafter. It's NORTH KOREA!

Interesting. Apparently the BBC got to interview three N. Korean residents talking about how it’s been since the border is closed in 2020 because of Covid and they said it’s pretty horrible. It wasn’t that great beforehand.

Remember, the old adage that you are who you surround yourself with? Who does Trump admire or surround HIMSELF with? Kim Jong-un. Vladimir Putin. MAGA government officials who bend to his autocratic illiberal criminal intentions? Yeah. OK.

Bad guy, Ukrainian militia, separatist leader, who Russia arrested Igor Aleksandrovich Kornet? He was supplying arms to the separatists, including munitions that shot down that commercial aircraft in 2014 which was simply flying over Ukraine.
Apparently, after the Prigozhin military action against Putin‘s military leaders, Kornet foolishly spoke out as a far right-wing Telegram blogger against Putin himself. Article in Financial Times: "Russian FSB Arrests Pro-Russian Separatist Leader"

Apparently, there are higher-ups in Russia, who are claiming that Putin’s time in power is limited to likely a year. As Putin‘s island of power shrinks, conscription is from 18 to 36 in Russia, but has been changed. So that senior officers as old as 70 could be called back into service. I'm sure they're just overjoyed about that.

A Russian pilot in Syria launched flares, which hit the prop of an American drone doing ISIS reconnaissance damaging it. Surely there’s some hawkish discussions going on about how to respond. I would say the answer is somewhat simple. Arm these things so that if they’re attacked, they launch a missile, doesn't even have to be big, doesn't even have to damage anything. It just has to hit what it’s aimed at. And then let the Russians know, where "it’s out of our control because it’s autonomous and will protect itself!"

It’s ironic how I’ve long claimed that Trump’s face, as well as his voice, are so very “punchable”. And so is Ron DeSantis’s though his face is less punchable, his voice takes up that extra slack.

If I ever write a horror story about a petulant little bitch, five-year-old whose the parents both agree to drown him in a slimy family pond, I will name him Donald. And if he has a bigoted bully friend, that’ll be his friend Ron, for Ron DeSantis. Maybe both kid's parents can get together and deal with the kids in similar kind of a twisted way they did in Shirley Jacksons “The Lottery“?

To be clear, the military is fine, they’re functional, they’re not worried about the shit the MAGA Republicans are forcing them into in their culture war nonsense. When I was in the Air Force, we had regular briefings on the topic of "rumors and propaganda". I’ve spoken about this before. It was a big deal. A big concern. The military is highly aware of and careful about that because they know how, in such a closed environment, in what has been euphemistically been referred to as “the perfect society“, it's like dropping a match into a tinderbox. Rumors and propaganda easily get out of control, so the military squashes it as fast as they can. Had America taken that tact with Donald Trump and the direction the Republican Party has been taking for decades now, we wouldn’t be in this fucking situation. Free speech is wonderful until it's weaponized and that has to be dismantled in order to allow it to flourish once again.

“Bless your little heart”, red states. We know it’ll take another hundred years to wash the generational butt hurt confederacy and racism out of your hair. But we love you anyway. We’re just going to protect America against you until you become fully American...Again?

I’ve noticed a couple of things throughout my life in working out. Not working out for a long time, then starting again, and so on. When you start working out, you can feel like you have a cold the first few days. Which is why many people give up. Some people never feel this, some have it really bad. Push through it. When you start getting your muscles toned, any fat layer on top of that starts to look worse. That’s the time if you haven’t already done, so to readjust your diet. Because of this past winter and long Covid, not feeling well and catching or feeling ill from long Covid flare ups, since winter past, I’ve been eating for pleasure too much. I’ve been cutting back on that now. I’d gotten down to eating one cookie (with chocolate on it) after lunch. But as I’ve gone back up 15 pounds from where I had been from being ill, with a restricted diet and  feeling much better regarding my weight back then, I’m switching now to fruits as my guilty pleasure. That will be healthier but it’s still fructose (a sugar) and so I’ll see how that goes. if I start losing weight, I will stay on it. If I don’t, I will readjust my diet again. Because this is about the journey of and accomplishing the mission of, getting back in shape. and being in a way where I feel healthier and happier.

About recovered UAPs… Those who keep saying that the moon mission had alien technology and on and on and such bullshit. Even if we had alien technology, what makes you think we were ever capable of replicating that.? In many cases we don’t or wouldn’t have the technology to reproduce the size of we we found, or those elements in some of these materials. Think about it. One of our drones ends up in the year 1750. How is that gonna advance technology? It will alter the course of technology, and it may even speed it up... a bit. But it will be 100 years before we have the tools and knowledge to replicate it, potentially in our case even thousands of years. I responded to a so-called sci-fi writer and Futurist on Facebook today about this, and I didn’t say this detail of information in the post, but I should’ve. How you can call yourself a Futurist and not see what I just said above, is quite beyond me. I don’t call myself a Futurist. I’m a speculative fiction writer, a sci-fi writer, and a horror writer. Also a screenwriter and a filmmaker. I took my first college class in Futurism in 1980. But I haven’t given paid talks, so I don’t consider myself a “Futurist” (maybe just a "futurist"). But I’ve still been studying it all my life. Science fiction is, if nothing else, about futurism. I was thinking, what Futurist type stories have I written? Definitely, "EarVu". "Jaonny's Apple Tree". "In Memory, Yet Crystal Clear" (my first published story in a horror quarterly in 1990). "Quantum History". Some others. So yeah, been a few, writing about it for a while now.

There was some nonsense back in the 70s that the Xerox copier came from alien technology. Still today you hear that moon landing involved alien technology. This is ludicrous. Because if you trace the research and development of these things, there’s nowhere in it for alien technology. It was simply brute force hardwork. And blood sweat and tears.

Science has no room for conspiracy until something has been studied and proven to be a "conspiracy", in the legal sense. 99% of conspiracy theories are just that, theories and nonsense. 

Did you know that in the blue and yellow of the Ukrainian flag, the yellow is for their wheatfields, and the blue is for their Ukrainian sky?

Cheers! Sláinte!

Conspiracy Theory Debunking 101

There are those who think I just don't believe what I don't like to or agree with, with no thought to reality. That conservative and republican disseminated conspiracy theories are never true, regardless. This couldn't be further from the truth. There are big conspiracies and many small ones, especially during election cycles. This 2016 election has been rife with them.

It may seem that I never ascribe to right wing conspiracies. But it is because there are so many circulated by those groups and frequently one has to (should) admit, they are ridiculous. In fact, all too frequently.

IF you know a just little bit about actual conspiracy theory itself, you'll see that quite clearly. You'll see what not to waste your time on. What not to say, leading others into making horrendous political mistakes. And who to ignore. There is much as one author put it, voodoo behind these conspiracy theories.

There are far better articles on conspiracy theory and how to consider them, evaluate them, debunk and verify them, and how to help those lost down that rabbit hole. I just doubt most people would go that far to find out. So I thought I'd make a quick and easy to understand, overview. Not a step by step, but a how to look at it in general and to consider finding more specific information depending on the form of the conspiracy involved.

IF you know Hillary is murdering people left and right just like her husband did as president, if you know Benghazi is Hillary and Obama's fault, if you know that Obama is a secret Muslim, Gay, or founder of ISIS, then you really have to ask your self this....

Do you know for instance, that the Trump campaign is having an actual effect upon our nation's children? Belief in the negative side magical thinking as in religions, and non-existent conspiracies do have a real impact upon culture, business, government and most importantly, people.

Do you know anything about what makes conspiracy theories seem true, or attractive? Even when they ARE fully fabricated?

What is Optimality Theory actually about? Or critical thinking? Cognitive Dissonance? Other conspiracy theory terms and definitions? Do you know just what government, legislative, political and congressional processes actually are, how they work in reality? Do you understand market organization and optimization on conspiracies? How information deforms and conforms in an information vacuum? How belief in conspiracies conflates one sense of self worth? How it satiates need in areas of closure, self esteem, fear?

Enough.

Look, I will just offer you this. It's up to you to learn the rest, or else stop spouting conspiracies in your ignorance. And on ignorance, we are all ignorant. It is beholden upon us to find accurate information and to know that many times, especially in politics, there will never be enough information to make informed decisions on. It then takes one to have a clear and present understanding of peripheral issues and people. Clear of prejudice, or at least of undeserved prejudice.

Above is a meme slamming Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton yet again. Sounds bad. But when you consider actual reality, a different picture begins to emerge. You can refer to this link to read actually happened during his testimony, so you can judge for yourself. Along with (and without) the republican interference and spin during the testimony. In the article supplied in the link you can clearly see where Mr. Hicks obviously noticed himself during testimony that his words were being twisted by Republicans for political and partisan reasons.

"Daniel Pipes, in an early essay "adapted from a study prepared for the CIA", attempted to define which beliefs distinguish 'the conspiracy mentality' from 'more conventional patterns of thought'. He defined them as: appearances deceive; conspiracies drive history; nothing is haphazard; the enemy always gains power, fame, money, and sex.[7]
One of the worst things about conspiracy theories is the fact they are almost airtight. Every debunking or piece of evidence against it will be viewed as an attempt to "misinform the public", and the lack of evidence for it is viewed as a government cover-up.
The flood of conspiracy theories results in possibly-rational conspiracy theories getting lost in the midst of the noise of newsworthy but disingenuous ideas such as New World Order or the Moon landing hoax.
Not everyone involved in a conspiracy necessarily knows all the details; in fact, sometimes none do." - Wikipedia

Let's take the example of assassinations in a recent meme. Obviously if this were a single murder we were talking about, one would have to handle it differently. But we're not. And no, you cannot take the procedure for a single murder and apply it outright to the methodology of a multiple murder or assassination conspiracy theory. It is in details such as that where conspiracist's analytical processes break down.

This has been going around. It's been adding "victims", as someone new dies they get added to the list. We're up to four now in how many have died because of the DNC or Hillary's reputation and therefore, the inference is that she or the DNC had them killed. Even though the meme does not mention Hillary, in many conservative minds, it is clearly her at work here. At very least, it is on her behest if not covert direction because hey, who can know, right?

Then someone added another meme into this one:

But who exactly would order that? And why? Especially when there is no real and clear motive, but it simply looks superficially, that there may be one?

The insidious thing about these conspiracies is the believer and proponent never needs truth, proof, or facts. Just, belief. Easy. Right?

A confluence of facts (or perceived facts), a motive, possibly resources to achieve said conspiracy and the desire of one or more to believe.

For a murder as in this case it legally requires willfulness, deliberation and premeditation.

But here's the thing in assassination conspiracies and the reality of this type of operation. It presupposes vast forces behind the scenes that are alluded to by the believer. It gives more credit than deserved to involved entities. It requires a vacuum of facts for support filled instead by factoids.

Conspiracies involving multiple murders.

It is a big mistake to murder for political reasons. The United States has stopped doing it decades ago in the 1960s and for good reasons. It tends to come out eventually. It tends not infrequently to have a degree of blow back that makes it not worth it in the end and for an intelligent person, not worth it in the beginning.

In the case above, one murder in a murder conspiracy is a wash. Without actual proof, and if there were someone would be in jail, you cannot definitively state someone killed someone. So we get to throw out at least one as reasonably not involved in a conspiracy. 

Two deaths is still not quite a coincidence, nor is it not a coincidence. So we can effectively throw out two murders, or in some cases, simply deaths. IF one is not an obvious murder you cannot just randomly assign it as a murder. Yes, someone could fake a death, murder by fake natural causes, accident or suicide. But this is the realm of conjecture.

Would you believe these things if at the end of your decision, if you were wrong, you would be shot in the head? Or would you apply more critical thought, more awareness of conspiracy theory itself?

Three deaths (or murders) begins to enter the realm of ending the potential for coincidence and four, pretty much is ending that completely. If all elements necessary are apparent. 

However. That is if you have the connection (in this case, to the DNC or Hillary), the motive (someone attacking or damaging the DNC, Hillary or in Hillary's case sometimes conspiracists will just say someone made her upset or angry), and the access and resources (either the perpetrator murdering someone directly, or assigning someone to take on the task. 

This is where you have to start looking into each individual case, understanding that you already have the potential connections between Hillary and a need for these people to die. Does she actually have a need for someone to die and does the gain outweigh the cost if discovered?

The United States decided as mentioned above, many years ago that assassination is just flat out, not cost effective considering political and other blow back over time.

So. If we start to look at each individual death, what do we find? 

The supplied meme above related to the DNC, the Democratic National Convention. But in many minds it is directly connected to Hillary Clinton. Point one. Points two through five are as follows:

Seth Conrad Rich, murdered. Snopes. And the family has asked that people just STOP.
John Ashe, died suspiciously. Snopes. "WHAT'S FALSE: Ashe's corruption trial wasn't set to begin just days after his death, and he wasn't going to testify against Hillary Clinton."
Victor Thorn, dead of gunshot wound. Snopes.
Shawn Lucas. Died of unknown causes pending autopsy. Snopes. No one is going to have a process server murdered, literally murdering the messenger. Thinking otherwise is ludicrous.

With even a cursory examination of the meme, it falls quickly apart and not even coincidence in many ways and just a mean spirited attempt at disinformation.

We see the same in so many right wing attacks against the left, against President Obama, against Hillary Clinton, and soon to be against whomever follows.

The answer to these things is rather than blinding sharing them, furthering the ignorance, further damaging not just enemies of someone, but the country at large, further polarizing the nation, but to look into these. First never verify by going only into similar reporting sources. Look first at the opposite sources. Find what they say. If they are logical, look further into it. Then go back to the same sources (right wing most likely). Are they are saying the same thing, as if from one source, as if the same illogical orientations?

The answer it to think. To trace logic and see where it breaks down. Consider the source, always. If it's right wing, it doesn't mean it's wrong, but it does mean it most likely has "spin" on it. They MAY give accurate facts but not always. They will supply an orientation, shading the facts, making things look as bad as possible for someone. Rather that just supply the truth in neutral words and let the facts work for them. But they so often do not work for them and so they have to spin it, or lie outright.

Cut away the spin, look at the facts. Are there enough facts available? Typically there are not and like a Donald Trump speech, you have to read (whatever you like) into it. Where do the facts came from? Is there a vested interest by the reporter or agency reporting in making someone look as bad as possible? Does the source have an interest in them looking bad? Does the negativity feed into your own personal dislikes and beliefs?

That doesn't make it wrong, it means you may have some cognitive dissonance going on. The more that it true the more you need a warning light going off to double and triple check, to find actual facts and see through the spin or falsehoods, if any.

Be careful. Find the truth. Then, SHARE that. Even if most importantly, it goes against what others believe and wish to believe. Our country has problems. We're only going to fix them by forcing those sharing lies to share truths, or to take matters into our own hands and share the truth ourselves. At whatever cost.

Whether we like those truths or not.

Just don't do what Julian Assange has been doing in with Wikileaks in politically staging and releasing "truths" at just the right moment in order to do as much damage as possible. Because that crosses over form reporting, to political manipulation.

We need to all start being honest and truthful in the best ways possible, in order to support our nation so that it can shine to the world in the best light it can be seen in.

In closing...and in taking as example the conservative hatred for Hillary and Clinton's in general:

There is another side to all this. If Hillary Clinton is such a genius as conservatives claim, able to get away for decades with multiple murders, apparently hundreds of crimes and so on, and the US (and others remember) government, who better to run the complexities of a country and a world.

Bush? LOL. Trump? LMFAO! Be serious.

There is apparently no one that smart in the entire world. Oh, except for a Clinton. Of course.

Truth is, no one would cover things up that much for anyone, certainly not the masses of cover ups, and all the people it would take to do all the things she is blamed for. And to maintain that secrecy, for decades.

It's inherent in conspiracy theory to ignore that.

While it is actually is rather ludicrous. And sad. But let's face it. Reality cannot change belief based in  pure conjecture and magical thinking (especially for those raised in a religious fashion, even if they are now self-proclaimed atheists).

As well as decades of a concerted conservative effort to slander, which is not conjecture. Which is well documented. Which is admitted to openly to by the right. And so, there it is.

Conservatives are now merely believing because they were told to and cannot now change course and  thereby, "lose face".

Truly my friends, my condolences.

Conspiracy Theories - Incompetence More Than Insight?

There are a few laws or theorems if you prefer,  that need to be applied to Conspiracies before one shouts them to the world. One thing Conspiracy Theorists seldom do is apply the right rules to vetting the subject of their typically ridiculous theories. The conspiracies they hammer us with in the media and online, which are usually more wishful thinking than fact, simply because of the nature of things that fit the theorist's conspiracy mold, typically are not reviewed well.

Or if they are well reviewed with the right filtering factors applied (like Occam's Razor), they simply ignore their findings and continue on; because at some level it makes them feel better because action, even incorrect action, feels better than non-action. Which oddly enough is typically what lead to the situation of a subject of a conspiracy theory in the first place, and not conscious thought, or conspiratorial collusion.

One of the obvious things about conspiracy theories are that they tend to be things that weren't conspiracies to begin with, but after the fact, because of a lack of information or transparency, they appear as there having been a conspiracy. Usually however, there wasn't. It was just how things played out over time. It's similar with recorded history wherein by simply writing out history, changes history, changes what actually happened, and in that small (sometimes large) variation is where conspiracy theories are born.

Occam's Razor is one of the best:

"Occam's razor (also written as Ockham's razor from William of Ockham (c. 1287 – 1347), and in Latin lex parsimoniae) is a principle of parsimony, economy, or succinctness used in problem-solving. It states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove correct, but—in the absence of certainty—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better." - Wikipedia

Hanlon's Law is a Conspiracy Theorist's bane: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

There are methods to apply to conspiracy to prove or disprove is to a reasonable degree, something theorists tend to avoid doing as it kills their theories. Theories which are fun for them, cathartic, and spire their inner fears which supports the theory in a never ending cycle.

For those addicted to conspiracies, a form of belief system that is fueled by lack of information and distrust of authority, and underlain by a sense of having little control in life, it is much the same mind type as are those addicted to religious beliefs, what is referred to as a "monological belief system".

My desire (and more importantly, pleasure) to believe in aliens and UFOs as a child in the 60s, became initially inflamed with I started to hear of other conspiracies. I thought those once in charge, in their sharing hidden knowledge, with information once allegedly disallowed to the masses, was a great and exciting thing. My first conspiracy was one by General William Westmoreland who ran the Viet Nam war. After Viet Nam he wrote a book which I read, which spawned many other conspiracies.

It was an interesting theory I cannot now remember and I cannot find that book any longer, which says something in itself. But my first thought after reading his book was not to merely believe or disbelieve, but to study just what conspiracy theories are, how they work, who were attracted to them, and why they happened. This is an important and key point in those who grab on to conspiracy theories and those who don't. Many of those who simply do not pay any attention to conspiracy theories, are not relevant in this consideration, as to ignore them from the start with little or no thought, indicates another type of individual altogether.

What is important is, for all of those who do pay attention at least initially and do look into them, what is the key deciding factor between those who keep going and those who see a conspiracy theory as simply white noise that appears to be something, but in the end logically just isn't. For me, when I read the General's book, I fell into a part mid book that just seemed questionable to me. So I researched it and his theory, for me, began to fall apart. I was stunned. How could such a high level official seriously believe in such nonsense? Was he just trying to make a buck on a book he saw was fictional, but sell-able? Or did he really believe what he was trying go convince others about.

I think he really believed it, at least at the time. But in my finding it was very likely his theory was not true, it brought up the question of how was that possible? That was my break, with conspiracy theories. Rather than try to swallow what he was selling, I instead looked into how it was possible he could believe what he was saying, and how others could believe something that to me appeared to be easily debunked. As it turned out, there was a certain type of personality (which I learned more about a few years later when I got my university degree in psychology) and certain elements needed that support a conspiracy theory as rational to that group of individuals. There are also those who know absolutely that it is an incorrect theory and yet, continue to push that theory for political and financial ends to better their position in some way.

It is important however, to consider the difference between my path and that of those who believe in these conspiracies, the point at which I branched off to learn about the theory of "conspiracy theory", and those who simply eat up the perceived conspiracy and ran with  it. They like to use various techniques to quelch dissent in their beliefs, such as by being demeaning, calling those who don't believe in what they believe in as "sheeple" (for people who are sheep following the flock of the ignorant masses), something which elevates them in their beliefs and objectifies those who disagree with them. Objectifies others as is done by soldiers in war so they can more easily kill the perceived enemy. Except that in this case, the "enemies" are fellow citizens.

What I found in researching what a conspiracy theory is, rather than simply focusing on a specific theory in particular, saved me a lot of time over my lifetime in realizing that the majority of popular conspiracies are simply bunk, and those attracted to them have a certain type of personalty and view of the world, based in a general distrust and perceived lack of control in their lives which affects them deeply and personally. The belief  that our government is a super secret, super capable institution, says more about conspiracy theorists than it does about our government, or their abilities or desires.

I find there seem to be far more people believing in conspiracies in the extreme movements, in the "right" or "left" political arenas, but more so for some reason on the right, in the conservative and Republican movements.

We should indeed pay attention to our world, to find out what's going on out of our view, but we should also realize when it's time to move on, to take other action then complaining and making noise, like removing people from office in a general sense, or protecting ourselves in a more personal sense. It is just important to be on guard that you are not simply of a certain mindset that makes you susceptible to silly conspiracies and focus on what is provable and reasonable and not something that will inevitably turn out to be simply a mass delusion, of which now a days there are so many.

If you are going to shout about conspiracies to the world, before you add to the dissonance in the mainstream, study what conspiracies are, and apply that judiciously to your beliefs. You may think that simply by making noise right OR wrong, it will help regardless as others will also look into it and eventually the truth will come out. Many times, there simply is no "truth" to be found out, just more incompetence and stupidity.

Don't attribute more capability of secrecy and institutional skill where there is none and therefore become one of those on the stupidity side of the argument. Because then you are just doing yourself and the rest of us a disservice, adding to the groundswell of chatter and nonsense, and that helps no one.

For more on this, I highly suggest you research more about conspiracies themselves rather than any one conspiracy. Then apply what you have learned to a particular conspiracy, pick your favorite conspiracy and see if it doesn't begin to fall apart on you. Here are three articles from Scientific American to begin with, but don't stop there, until you have as solid a handle on what conspiracies are as you do believing in them. These are three interesting and useful articles.

• The Conspiracy Theory Detector 
• Why People Believe Conspiracy Theories 
• Insights into the Personalities of Conspiracy Theorists 

From Nov 17, 2010 |by Michael Shermer - The Conspiracy Theory Detector:

The more that it manifests the following characteristics, the less probable that the theory is grounded in reality:

1. Proof of the conspiracy supposedly emerges from a pattern of “connecting the dots” between events that need not be causally connected. When no evidence supports these connections except the allegation of the conspiracy or when the evidence fits equally well to other causal connections—or to randomness—the conspiracy theory is likely to be false.
2. The agents behind the pattern of the conspiracy would need nearly superhuman power to pull it off. People are usually not nearly so powerful as we think they are.
3. The conspiracy is complex, and its successful completion demands a large number of elements.
4. Similarly, the conspiracy involves large numbers of people who would all need to keep silent about their secrets. The more people involved, the less realistic it becomes.
5. The conspiracy encompasses a grand ambition for control over a nation, economy or political system. If it suggests world domination, the theory is even less likely to be true.
6. The conspiracy theory ratchets up from small events that might be true to much larger, much less probable events.
7. The conspiracy theory assigns portentous, sinister meanings to what are most likely innocuous, insignificant events.
8. The theory tends to commingle facts and speculations without distinguishing between the two and without assigning degrees of probability or of factuality.
9. The theorist is indiscriminately suspicious of all government agencies or private groups, which suggests an inability to nuance differences between true and false conspiracies.
10. The conspiracy theorist refuses to consider alternative explanations, rejecting all disconfirming evidence and blatantly seeking only confirmatory evidence to support what he or she has a priori determined to be the truth.