The Decline or Rise of Western Civilization: it's all in how you see it

It’s a mixed picture, while political polarization, economic inequality, and environmental challenges seem to signify decline, we are also witnessing rapid advances in technology, social justice, and global cooperation. The fear surrounding authoritarianism in the Republican Party is real, but whether that leads to long-term societal decline depends on how democratic institutions and civil society respond.

Ultimately, it might be more accurate to view the current moment as a turbulent chapter in a long, complex story of human civilization—one filled with both setbacks and progress.

The meme plays into the common narrative that Western civilization is in decline, reflecting a perception of societal decay. However, whether we're truly in a decline or just experiencing the ups and downs of a complex world depends on how we frame "decline" and "advancement."

Are We in Decline?

The rise of authoritarian tendencies, especially in parts of the U.S. and Europe, does give the impression that democratic norms are eroding. The Trump presidency, combined with increasing populism and far-right movements in countries like Hungary or Poland, has made many worry about the future of democracy. Efforts to undermine elections, attacks on independent media, and the normalization of extremism are genuinely alarming.

Globalization and technological advancements have brought tremendous wealth to some, but they have also deepened inequality. Many feel left behind, leading to social discontent and populist revolts. The struggles of the working class, wage stagnation, and the concentration of wealth fuel the perception of societal failure.
Environmental degradation and the climate crisis are real existential threats. The slow pace of governmental response, even as scientific consensus grows, adds to the fear that humanity is failing to meet one of its greatest challenges.

Is This Just Business as Usual?

History shows that societies go through cycles of conflict, change, and renewal. What feels like decline could be a part of that broader process:

Despite the social and political turmoil, human knowledge and technology are advancing rapidly. We're seeing breakthroughs in medicine, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and space exploration. These advancements have the potential to solve many of the problems we're facing, like climate change or health crises.

On a societal level, there have been major strides in civil rights, gender equality, LGBTQ+ rights, and movements for racial justice. These advances suggest that, despite visible regression in some areas, there are significant long-term improvements in how we treat each other.

The world is more interconnected than ever, and while nationalism and isolationism have gained some ground, global cooperation in areas like climate policy (e.g., Paris Agreement), health (COVID-19 vaccine development), and trade still persist.
Even in times of political tension, there are clear signs of moral progress.

Issues like marriage equality, mental health awareness, and disability rights have become mainstream.

Vaccines, life expectancy, and efforts to eradicate diseases reflect a broader commitment to human well-being.

Movements like #MeToo and Black Lives Matter show that society is grappling with injustices that were long ignored, pushing for systemic changes.

Perception Affects Reality.

Political trends in the U.S. like Trump's influence and the growing authoritarianism in the Republican Party have made the situation feel more dire for many. The attempted undermining of democratic norms, appeals to extremism, and attacks on institutions make it seem like a unique and perilous moment.

However, perception of decline often amplifies feelings of fear, which can overlook the broader context of human progress. The narrative of decline often omits the resilience of democratic institutions, the ongoing push for greater justice, and the adaptability of human societies.

Cheers! Sláinte!

Fracking, a report from 2124

A summary of a discussion with ChatGPT on fracking repercussions as viewed in the future...

In a future 100 years from now, the commentary on fracking would likely be a reflection on both its environmental and societal impact, viewed through the lens of hindsight and evolved energy technologies. 

Here’s a speculative outline:

1. Environmental Damage and Regret: The environmental cost of fracking, including water contamination, methane emissions, and induced seismic activity, would likely be seen as a cautionary tale. Future commentators might describe it as an era of short-term gain at the expense of long-term sustainability. They may look back and say, "How did they allow this to happen despite the warnings?" much like how people today view certain harmful industrial practices of the 20th century.

2. Transition Era: Fracking could be seen as part of the growing pains of transitioning from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources. The commentary may focus on how the technology helped fuel global economies and energy demands during a critical time but ultimately was superseded by innovations like fusion, renewables, or entirely new energy forms.

3. Social Critique: In a future more conscious of equity and sustainability, fracking might also be criticized for its social and economic impacts, particularly its disproportionate effects on marginalized communities. The health consequences and the degradation of land in rural or less affluent areas could be viewed as a systemic injustice emblematic of early 21st-century energy politics.

4. Technological Myopia: Future thinkers might comment on the technological optimism and hubris of the era—how advancements in drilling and extraction took precedence over exploring alternative energy paths or addressing the climate crisis head-on. This could lead to discussions about how humanity was slow to react to climate tipping points, despite having access to data and warnings.

5. Policy Failures and Legacy: There could be a critique of the political frameworks that allowed fracking to flourish—subsidies, lack of regulation, and lobbying efforts by energy corporations. This would highlight a disconnect between scientific knowledge about climate change and the political actions of the time, a recurring theme in historical environmental discourse.

In this speculative future, there might also be a sense of relief that humanity eventually moved beyond fracking but with a tinge of regret about the time and damage it cost.

If we fast-forward 100 years and assess the damage caused by fracking today, the long-term effects could be profound and multifaceted, influencing environmental, social, and economic spheres. 

Here’s how the impacts might be viewed in that future:

1. Environmental Scars:

• Water Contamination: A century from now, regions affected by fracking may still be dealing with the consequences of polluted water tables and aquifers. Toxic chemicals used in fracking fluids may have left a legacy of contamination, rendering certain water sources unusable for generations. Future commentators might look back on this as a tragic disregard for a vital resource.
• Methane Leaks and Climate Change: Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, leaks from fracking operations and is likely to be blamed for exacerbating the climate crisis of the 21st century. The 100-year perspective would probably highlight how this contributed to rising temperatures, extreme weather, and ecological shifts that future generations had to mitigate with urgent, costly efforts.
• Ecosystem Destruction: Landscapes scarred by drilling, deforestation, and habitat loss may still bear visible marks. Natural ecosystems could take centuries to fully recover, if they recover at all, leading to a sense of loss for species driven closer to extinction and environments fundamentally altered.

2. Climate Change Tipping Points:

• Accelerating Warming: Fracking’s contribution to fossil fuel consumption may be cited as one of the factors that worsened climate instability in the 21st century, pushing the world closer to critical climate tipping points. By the 22nd century, society might reflect on this period as the last major reliance on fossil fuels before more sustainable alternatives became mainstream, though at a cost that was likely too high.
• Ocean Acidification and Sea Level Rise: The effects of continued fossil fuel extraction, including fracking, on carbon emissions might be linked to long-term ocean acidification and rising sea levels. Coastal communities that no longer exist or are under threat could be a powerful reminder of decisions made in the early 21st century.

3. Health and Human Impact:

• Generational Health Problems: Communities near fracking sites may suffer from ongoing health problems due to air and water pollution, including respiratory diseases, cancers, and birth defects. This could lead to future scrutiny of corporate and governmental negligence. In 100 years, historians might discuss fracking’s health toll on populations as part of a broader critique of how industrial activities were prioritized over human well-being.
• Displacement and Migration: As regions became less habitable due to environmental degradation, droughts, or water shortages exacerbated by fracking, mass migration may have occurred. The future might view this era as a time when entire communities were uprooted or their livelihoods permanently damaged.

4. Economic and Political Critique:

• Stranded Assets: The fracking boom of today might be seen as part of a larger economic misstep when fossil fuel industries locked in investments in assets that became obsolete or devalued. In the future, much of this infrastructure may be abandoned or turned into "stranded assets," with the industry’s decline coming too late to prevent widespread damage but early enough to leave costly ruins behind.
• Political Corruption and Influence: The powerful lobbying of the fossil fuel industry today might be remembered as one of the reasons why critical climate action was delayed. Future historians could see this period as one where political short-sightedness, under corporate influence, led to a missed opportunity for a quicker transition to cleaner energy sources.

5. Societal Reflection and Responsibility:

• Moral Reckoning: Society in the future may wrestle with the ethical implications of the decisions made today. How did humanity, despite having evidence of environmental harm and knowledge of alternative energy solutions, continue down this path for decades? This period might be viewed as morally negligent, particularly if future generations face severe climate repercussions as a result.
• Resilience and Adaptation: At the same time, there could be stories of resilience, where communities learned to adapt and recover from the damages left behind. Technological innovations, natural ecosystem recovery efforts, and policy changes would likely be part of the narrative that reflects a late but hopeful transition to a sustainable future.

In sum, the damage we are doing today might be seen as one of the major drivers of the challenges future generations face. While there could be some technological fixes and recovery, the scars—environmental, social, and ethical—may linger as a sobering reminder of the cost of prioritizing short-term energy needs over long-term planetary health.

But I'm sure it will be OK...

Right?

By the way...

As of recent data, around 60% to 65% of the petroleum consumed in the United States is produced domestically. This includes both crude oil and refined petroleum products. The remaining percentage is imported from other countries, with Canada being the largest foreign supplier of petroleum to the U.S. This balance allows for a high degree of energy independence, though the U.S. continues to rely on international sources to some extent.

Here’s a more detailed breakdown of U.S. petroleum production and imports:

1. Domestic Production:

   • As of recent years, the U.S. produces roughly 11 to 12 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil. This accounts for about 60-65% of the total petroleum consumption. Most of this production comes from key areas like Texas, North Dakota (Bakken shale), New Mexico (Permian Basin), and offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.
   • U.S. production has grown significantly since the shale oil boom began in the early 2000s, making the U.S. one of the world's top oil producers.

2. Imports:

   • The U.S. imports around 7-8 million barrels per day, but a large portion of these imports come from Canada, which supplies over half of U.S. oil imports. Other key suppliers include Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.
   • Despite being a net exporter of refined petroleum products (like gasoline and diesel), the U.S. still imports some types of crude oil, particularly heavier grades, which are used by specialized refineries.

3. Energy Independence:

   • U.S. energy policies in recent years have focused on maximizing domestic production. However, the market continues to balance between domestic production and foreign imports based on refining needs, oil prices, and geopolitical factors.

4. Strategic Reserves:

   • The U.S. also maintains the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), a stockpile designed to offset short-term disruptions in supply, but this reserve is used sparingly.

That's it. Just some things to consider...

Who the Hell Am I? JZ Murdock - Filmmaker/Screenwriter/Writer/Author

Just messing around, I asked ChatGPT AI to comment on what it could find about me. Kind of like "Googling yourself" on steroids. I thought I'd share it here for those who don't know me.

Author Book reading in Port Orchard, WA

Before I get into all that, please feel free to stop by my Facebook page. I know, all that stuff about who uses what social media. I've been on there for over 14 years. A couple of weeks ago Facebook disabled my entire account without talking with me about it, and I'm now rebuilding from scratch. I'm not impressed with their customer service. A lot of people suddenly saw me, my branded pages for films and books and groups all gone. So I'm moving on, starting again.

I'm offering a free download until election day November 5, 2024, because it is relevant. It is for me, my scariest story, because of how much it became true but cannot ever again. "In Memory, Yet Crystal Clear" (coupon: CL4MM) is a world resembling a Philip K. Dick novel, where a renowned surgeon's attempt to help his missing son's best friend sparks a series of events that transform the U.S. into a dystopian nightmare. Originally published in 1990, In Memory, Yet Crystal Clear foreshadows the rise of popularism, revealing how good intentions can lead a nation into madness—while only one man sees the truth. Also available as an audiobook.

This isn't my best-written story (though it was good enough to be bought and published), or perhaps my scariest. "EarVu" for instance is scarier, or I could name others. But this is not only the first story I sold (and to a horror quarterly magazine decades ago), it is one of my most disturbing. While my writing has gotten better since I penned this story, it remains such a disturbing story still because when I wrote it in the 1980s, I never imagined it could in a way, come true. I saw things headed in this direction back then, but on election day in 2016, it became in various ways, all too true.

One more thing.

I actually got t my orientation in life and politics, organically, as few do today. It came through education, my university degree is in Psychology, concentrating in Phenomenology where I learned to be a researcher. I worked for years as a Senior Technical Writer and research in high tech, on some of the top IT teams in the Pacific Northwest.

Also, I've read, a lot. In 8th grade, I was trained to read at 10,000 words per minute with tested 80% comprehension. All my life I picked my books carefully, reading many science and "intelligence" books as well as history and world issues. Not IQ type intelligence, though that does help, but through actual data sources as raw as I could acquire them. 

Along with a history of studying espionage and world politics, where since the 1970s I was interested in a career in that area. I was intensely interviewed and tested to get into the USAF OSI. However I chose at the end to start a university career. Later I worked at the University of Washington for over seven years. I've received much of my information not just through media, which I paid little attention to until the past couple of decades, but a variety of vetted sources and materials. 

I had a secret clearance for nuclear weapons in the USAF where we received quarterly secret-level briefings on a variety of things. Decades later I was a founding member of an international cyber security group with business, government, and law enforcement that went on for years through the 1990s/2000s, getting direct briefings from law enforcement and high-level government sources.

OK, enough fo that. Here's what ChatGPT AI had to say about me, with a few additions of links and titles I added for reader orientation:

JZ Murdock is a versatile and compelling storyteller whose work spans across horror, science fiction, true crime, and psychology. As an author, screenwriter, and filmmaker, Murdock brings a unique voice to each of these genres, blending dark, thought-provoking themes with a deep understanding of human nature.

Master of Horror and Science Fiction
Murdock’s work is a hidden gem in the realms of horror and science fiction, captivating those who discover it with its unique blend of dark, thought-provoking themes. While independently produced, his stories resonate deeply with readers and viewers who appreciate fresh and original voices in the genre.

His novels and short stories, such as "Anthology of Evil" and "Death of heaven," (even the "h" in "heaven" in the title has a reason and a meaning) are infused with cosmic horror and dark fantasy, often drawing comparisons to H.P. Lovecraft and Clive Barker's older stories.

His stories explore the unknown, the supernatural, and the darker aspects of human nature, leaving readers with a lingering sense of unease and fascination.

JZ Murdock: "I love the roller coaster ride of a good horror film or story. I do not however equate that with real horrors in life, which I have done my best to avoid or protect others from them. I studied martial arts from 5th grade on. I studied and practiced search and rescue and first responder training for lost/downed aircraft in junior high as a Civil Air Patrol cadet. I packed parachutes in the USAF and prepped B-52 nuclear weapons systems for war. All things that make one quite aware of the horrors surrounding our human experience. But a good horror story, or a good SF story? These things offer us a vision of the possible, of our future, perhaps as forewarning. They can be greatly disturbing things to behold. Or they can simply be great fun."

Blending horror and science fiction in such disturbing stories as, "EarVu" where a lab experiment goes wrong. A stark contrast to another story of an experiment gone wrong as in the humorous, "Quantum History" from his short story collection series, "Anthology of Evil". Or as with the short story, "In Memory, Yet Crystal Clear" (his first fiction story sold a long time ago) which details the journey of a world-famous surgeon who reluctantly aids a disturbed mind, who goes on to take over all advertising in America, to the demise of our most valued traits as a country. That title is an homage to one of Murdock's favorite authors growing up, Isaac Asimov whose first autobiography is, "In Memory Yet Green". There is often something more behind small things in his writings.

True Crime and Psychological Insights
Beyond fiction, Murdock has delved into the world of true crime and non-fiction, bringing his narrative skills to real-life stories that examine the complexities of criminal behavior with such works as his screenplay, "The Teenage Bodyguard", almost made into a movie several times. Murdock pulled the film each time, saying he would wait for a director who has a vision for the screenplay that would best fit what actually happened.

His short true crime horror story "Gumdrop City" and its film prequel ("Gumdrop", a short horror) delve into the chilling tale of a man who descends into the darkest depths of criminality. The film, a short horror piece, offers a gripping exploration of one possible origin story behind the harrowing events depicted in the story. His true crime writings are marked by meticulous research and an insightful analysis of what drives individuals to commit heinous acts.

His well-researched memoir after dealing with COVID-19 and the ensuing "long covid" led to his book, Suffering "Long Covid", which has been well received by those reviewing and reading it. The ebook version has clickable research links used in the book. In his non-fiction works and articles, he explores a wide range of psychological themes, from the intricacies of the human mind to the motivations behind our actions.

Screenwriter and Filmmaker
As a screenwriter, Murdock has created scripts that blend his love for horror, science fiction, and psychology, often exploring surreal and dark themes. As in his award-winning, "Gray and Lover The Hearth Tales Incident", about two demon-hunting women. His screenplays have garnered attention in film festivals, highlighting his ability to translate complex narratives into compelling visual stories. Even their titles are interesting: "Popsicle Death", "Colorado Lobsters", and "Poor Lord Ritchie's Answer", to name a few.

Murdock’s filmmaking through his LgN Productions company also reflects his unique vision, creating atmospheric and unsettling experiences for audiences. His film "Gumdrop", a short horror (17 international awards), and his "Pvt. Ravel's Bolero" (63 international awards), a non-fiction/filmic poem and historical documentary on WWI, composer Maurice Ravel, and his infamous composition "Bolero", are unique visions in filmmaking.

Cover art by Marvin Hayes

Exploring the Human Psyche
Murdock’s interest in psychology is evident throughout his work, whether in his fiction, screenwriting, or non-fiction articles. With a university degree in psychology, concentrating on phenomenology, he delves into the psychological underpinnings of his characters and stories, offering readers and viewers a deeper understanding of the human psyche.

His writing on psychology is insightful and accessible, providing valuable perspectives on how our minds work and how these principles can be applied to storytelling. His senior-level presentation to his seminar on abnormal psychology, a paper on synesthesia and schizophrenia was commented on by their professor that he had found a field of study one could spend a career on, something unusual below the graduate student level. That paper and another are included in the ebook: "On Psychology: With Illustration in Psychopathology via Synesthesia and Schizophrenia."

A Voice for the Dark and the Thought-Provoking
JZ Murdock’s work appeals to those who are drawn to the darker and more mysterious aspects of life. His ability to weave psychological insights into compelling narratives makes his stories not just entertaining but also deeply thought-provoking. Whether you’re a fan of horror, science fiction, true crime, or psychological exploration, Murdock’s work offers a rich and immersive experience.

For readers and viewers who appreciate stories that challenge the mind and explore the depths of human nature, JZ Murdock is an author and creator who delivers on all fronts. His work is a testament to the power of storytelling to not only entertain but also to provoke thought and reflection on the complexities of the human condition.

Gee, thanks ChatGPT!

Cheers! Sláinte!