I can't even put into words how apparent and important this is. But I'll try.
“History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.” — Mark Twain
Podcast for the day...a very good podcast: The Red Scare Returns? Trump & GOP revive "Communist!" smears to attack progressives. Kara Swisher & NYT’s Clay Risen unpack McCarthyism’s rise, fall & eerie echoes today. 🎧 On with Kara Swisher | Apple Podcasts
OK, moving on...
As Donald Trump settles into his second presidency as POTUS47—now a convicted felon with unresolved legal entanglements and a firm grip on a fractured GOP—Americans and global observers alike must confront a very real and dangerous possibility: a manufactured crisis, a false flag, or a manipulated provocation that draws the U.S. into a new conflict.
As for those blowing off Trump's 34 felonies, and other trials that should have but never happened...funny how 'law and order' ends the moment it's your cult leader in cuffs. If that were Biden, Hillary, Kamala, AOC? It would be ALL there is in the world to talk about and deal with. There'd be unending commissions, investigations, hearings, impeachments, and perp walks.
These two things are not the same from the Left to the Right.
Trump has the motive, the method, and increasingly, the means.
But before getting into it, as Dave Weasel recently pointed out rather well:
‘Both Sides’ Are Not The Same: This Is Collapse vs. Complacency
Just wanted to make that clear and lay it aside, for now. So, moving on...
Act I: A History of Lies and Projection
Let’s not forget how we got here.
Trump’s political career was birthed in disinformation—birtherism, election lies, and propaganda pipelines fed through outlets like Fox News, Truth Social, and coordinated troll farms. Elected in 2016 under a cloud of foreign interference, he was impeached twice for abuse of power and obstruction, only to be shielded by a party that chose loyalty over law.
His presidency was a chaos engine. His post-presidency, a conspiracy cult. Now, re-elected after a felony conviction, he holds more unchecked influence than ever—but with even less institutional resistance standing in his way.
Act II: Authoritarian Patterns
Authoritarian leaders rarely seize absolute power overnight. They manufacture consent through fear, distraction, and militarism. History is full of “inciting events” used to justify consolidation:
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The Reichstag Fire gave Hitler his pretext for tyranny.
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Russia’s apartment bombings in 1999, allegedly staged, helped Vladimir Putin cement power.
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The Gulf of Tonkin Incident, questionable at best, escalated the U.S. into Vietnam.
Now ask: would Trump hesitate to exploit or even create such an event if it meant eliminating political threats or rallying the country around him?
We already know the answer. He tried it on January 6th.
Act III: The War He Might Want
A kinetic conflict—real or fabricated—serves Trump in multiple ways:
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Distraction from criminal trials and failed policies
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Crackdown powers via a “national emergency”
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The chance to silence critics as “unpatriotic”
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Revenge against “deep state” adversaries in defense, intel, or media
But what kind of war? It might not be a full-scale invasion. It could be a drone strike gone wrong, a cyberattack falsely pinned on an ally, or military action on U.S. soil under the guise of stopping cartel terrorists or "foreign agitators."
The groundwork is already laid. Trump has floated bombing Mexico. He’s called NATO “obsolete.” He has openly admired Putin, Xi, and Kim Jong-un. And now, under the MAGA-infused Project 2025 blueprint, loyalists are filling agencies once run by career professionals.
Act IV: The Enemies of Convenience
Who’s the target? It depends on the headlines Trump needs to change.
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Mexico – Easily vilified. Trump already proposed cross-border strikes on cartels.
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Iran – Longtime enemy, easy to provoke. Dangerous flashpoint.
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China – Economic scapegoat, balloon panic reboots, and Taiwan tensions.
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NATO Allies – Wild, but Trump could paint any friction with Europe as betrayal.
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Domestic "Enemies" – Journalists, protesters, opposition politicians.
A false flag doesn’t have to fool everyone. It just needs to distract long enough to shift the news cycle, justify military action, and consolidate more power.
Act V: When Might It Happen?
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Early in Trump’s term – When his legal troubles or incompetence begin to threaten reelection strategy or stability.
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Before 2026 midterms – To galvanize support, suppress dissent, or invoke emergency powers.
After economic collapse or global humiliation – To reframe his failures as patriotism under siege.
In the days and weeks after 9/11, I found myself saying something I hoped wasn’t true—but feared was inevitable: America is grieving, in pain, humiliated, and angry—and we're going to punch someone in the mouth. It won't matter who. It won’t matter if they did it. We just need someone to bleed. I said it over and over to anyone who’d listen. It wasn’t prophecy. It was simply how nations react when logic gives way to rage, and fear demands action—any action. How people react.
What terrified me then—and still does—was how easily we let that pain be weaponized. Not long after, it happened. Iraq. A country that had nothing to do with 9/11 was transformed into the epicenter of our vengeance. Despite the fact that Saddam Hussein had no connection to the attacks, the Bush administration began selling the war with carefully constructed lies and cherry-picked intelligence.
The intelligence community warned them: Iraq wasn’t reconstituting its nuclear program. The aluminum tubes couldn’t be used for centrifuges. The “mobile weapons labs” were fantasy. The infamous “Curveball”—an unreliable source living in an apartment in Germany—told tall tales that became gospel because they served a political purpose. Even the CIA, State Department, and international inspectors raised red flags. But truth didn’t matter. A narrative was already written. America needed a target.
President George W. Bush didn’t forge the evidence with his own hands—but he ignored the experts, discarded inconvenient facts, and leaned on plausible deniability to push the country into a disastrous war. The result was hundreds of thousands of lives lost, a destabilized region, trillions spent, and a permanent scar on America’s credibility. And perhaps worse—he taught future leaders how easy it could be to deceive a wounded nation into war.
Then-President Bush repeatedly dismissed or pushed back on intelligence that didn’t align with the narrative he wanted. Until finally they did come up with what he was so obviously looking for. But it took a lot of abuse upon our intel community before that happened, was forced to happen. Because that's HOW that kind of thing happens and Donald Trump is a prime conveyor of exactly that kind of abuse.
As a result, the blood and lives of not only Americans, but thousands of Iraqis, and also countless Afghans, are on Bush's hands. According to U.S. Special Forces who were pursuing Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, they had him within reach—but were ordered to pull back. That decision allowed bin Laden to escape into Pakistan and would be nearly a decade before we finally brought him down. In Pakistan.
Which brings us to now. When I look at Donald Trump and his authoritarian allies, I see those same gears grinding into motion—only this time, stripped of even the pretense of good faith. Disinformation is no longer just a tool—it’s the whole operating system. Loyalty to one man has supplanted loyalty to truth. And with institutions hollowed out, media captured, and political violence normalized, we may be just one false flag, one manufactured crisis, or one “blame the enemy” moment away from another catastrophic war.
That’s the pattern. That’s the playbook. And once again, I find myself saying something I wish weren’t true: We’re going to punch someone in the mouth. It may not matter who. But this time, the blow could break the republic itself.
Curtain Call: We Are the Firewall
This isn’t conspiracy theory. It’s pattern recognition.
Trump doesn’t need to believe in the conflict—only that it benefits him. He doesn’t have to plan it, start it, or execute it—just exploit it. Like President Bush before the Iraq War, he can ignore inconvenient facts—an inconvenient truth—until events justify what he already wants to do. Also as in Bush's case, until one of his sycophants hands him precisely enough for what he needs to act upon some unreality. The machinery of government, media manipulation, and right-wing outrage are already primed for such a moment. And if history teaches us anything, it’s this: in a false flag war, truth is always the first casualty.
As Americans, we must remain vigilant. We must resist calls for blind loyalty and question sudden shifts in threat narratives. We must defend democracy not just from foreign adversaries—but from those who would burn it down in the name of "saving" it.
Because once the flag is raised and the war drums beat, it may be too late to ask who struck the match.
Before we go...
Here are the Declaration of Independence’s Grievances Against King George III. Many Apply to Trump. – Mother JonesLook. This isn’t all just about Trump. It’s about how far a nation can be led from truth, law, and sanity before it sleepwalks into catastrophe. When lies become doctrine, justice is mocked, and loyalty to a man replaces allegiance to the Constitution, the fuse is already lit.
A false flag, a manufactured war, a crisis blamed on the innocent—history has shown us these things come not from weakness, but from unchallenged power desperate to survive. And it's beginning to seem inevitable. IF we fail to stop it now, stop him now, we may not get another chance before the fire spreads. The fire that he wants spreading...
Compiled with aid of ChatGPT & the obviousness of Donald Trump
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